Ottawa is currently flirting with a rebound relationship that’s bound to end in a messy breakup. With the White House leaning hard into protectionism and a "zombie" trade deal looming over our heads, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government seems to think playing the "China card" will give Canada leverage. It won’t. In fact, it's making everything worse.
Michael Kovrig, the former diplomat who lived through the brutal reality of Chinese "justice" for 1,000 days, isn't buying the government's new pivot. Speaking at a business summit in Ottawa this week, Kovrig was blunt. He warned that treating Beijing as a safety net for our American troubles is a "risky play" that’s more likely to alienate Washington than scare them into a better deal.
He’s right. You can't use a country that views trade as a weapon to solve problems with a neighbor that views trade as a domestic political theatre.
The Myth of the China Card
The idea is simple enough in theory. If the Americans threaten us with steel tariffs or auto quotas, we just sign a deal with Beijing to show we've got other options. It’s the geopolitical equivalent of bringing a date to a party just to make your ex jealous.
But Washington isn't jealous; they're angry. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently hammered Canada for its deal to import 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) at a lower tariff rate. He didn't see it as a savvy business move. He saw it as Canada becoming a backdoor for Chinese subsidized goods to leak into the North American market.
When we break ranks with the U.S. on something as sensitive as EVs, we aren't gaining leverage. We're looking like an unreliable partner. Kovrig noted that while it might feel empowering to "go to my friends in Beijing," it’s not going to go well in a Washington administration that is already looking for excuses to slap "Buy American" labels on everything.
Trading a Partner for a Predator
Let’s look at the math because it’s staggering. About 75% of Canadian exports go to the United States. Only about 4% go to China. Trying to replace U.S. market access with Chinese trade is like trying to replace a missing lung with a toothpick.
The bigger issue is that China isn't in "buying mode" anymore. Their economy is stuck in a deflationary spiral. They aren't looking for high-end Canadian tech or manufactured goods. They want to sell. They want to dump their overcapacity—cheaper steel, cheaper EVs, cheaper everything—onto our shores to keep their own factories running.
Kovrig’s warning about "path dependence" is essential here. If we let Chinese EVs dominate our entry-level market today, we lose the chance to build our own industry tomorrow. We become dependent on their supply chains, their software, and their whims.
Lessons from the Canola Crisis
We’ve seen this movie before. Every time Canada does something Beijing dislikes—like arresting a Huawei executive or criticizing human rights abuses—the "trade" suddenly dries up.
- Our canola farmers lost billions when China blocked imports on a whim.
- Seafood and pork producers have been used as pawns in diplomatic chess matches.
- Even the current "thaw" is lopsided.
China lowered tariffs on our canola because they needed the supply, not because they've suddenly become our best friends. They kept the leverage. They can flip the switch back to "blocked" the second Ottawa says something they don't like.
The National Security Blind Spot
It's not just about dollars and cents. It's about who owns the infrastructure of our lives. Kovrig pointed out that the deal Carney signed earlier this year—which aims to increase exports to China by 50% by 2030—comes with massive strings attached.
When we allow Chinese joint-venture investments into our auto sector or energy grid, we aren't just getting cash. We're giving a foreign adversary a seat at the table of our national security. The U.S. sees this clearly, even if Ottawa is wearing rose-colored glasses.
By diverging from U.S. policy on China, Canada is effectively telling the White House that we don't care about the "Fortress North America" strategy. That’s a bold move when the CUSMA (USMCA) agreement is up for review and the U.S. is looking to reshore as much manufacturing as possible. If we want to stay inside the tent, we can't keep trying to build a side-door to Beijing.
Hard Truths for the Carney Government
Canada is in a tough spot. There's no denying that. Dealing with a mercurial U.S. administration that views borders as "no longer gates" is exhausting and expensive. But the solution isn't to run into the arms of a regime that literally took our citizens hostage to get its way.
"China is not North Korea," Kovrig quipped, acknowledging we can't just cut them off entirely. But we need to stop pretending they're a "solution." They're a complication.
If you're a business owner or an investor, you need to be looking at the long-term strategic cost of these deals, not just the short-term relief on agricultural tariffs. Any deal with China should be:
- Tightly restricted to non-sensitive sectors.
- Easily reversible if Beijing starts its usual bullying tactics.
- Aligned with Washington to ensure we don't lose our most important market.
Stop looking for a "China solution" to an "American problem." It doesn't exist. We need to double down on our own productivity and our continental alliances. Anything else is just wishful thinking that will end with Canada being a footnote in someone else’s success story.
Start by diversifying trade within the G7 and the Indo-Pacific—countries that actually play by the rules. Relying on Beijing to balance out Washington is a trap, and we've already spent 1,000 days learning what happens when that trap snaps shut.
